Wrong Speech!

Seems Hosni Mubarak wrote two speeches and recited the wrong one. Midway through it was pretty evident that he didn't have a bus ticket out of Cairo. He may soon wish otherwise. But to be fair, giving up power, particularly at someone else's request (well, a lot of 'someone's), is both difficult and not particularly palatable. Plus, there is the part where delusion has either set in, or has been a continuing element of the psychosis that develops in the mind of those who cherish absolute power. Whatever the motivation may be, it should be remembered that his faults should be weighed against the positives. He has maintained a very delicate treaty with Israel -- not happily, mind you, but a great many lives have been allowed to go forward by the very endurance of that agreement. Okay, credit where due, but he needs to go. Popular uprisings will not accept 'maybe tomorrow' as a credible alternative. Ignition has occurred.

Now the tricky part. Two things: His call for constitutional change to necessitate his departure is both a marginal truth and a whole bunch of smoke. The country has been under 'national emergency' administration for...a damn long time. That negates the power and authority of a constitution anyway since most provisions went out the window with the bath water. I'm pretty sure there are a few adults around to manage an interim government until substantive changes can be made. That cannot happen with a half-million people tossing bricks at each other. That stifles most kinds of constructive engagement.

Secondly, and far more problematic is the military. Fence-sitting is not a military attribute. It is quite likely that they will stage a coupe as the only available option in restoring some kind of order. History shows that when the military is forced to execute this option, they are not likely to surrender power in anything resembling the short term. Egypt could offer a separate or somewhat diluted paradigm, but nobody can bet on that at this point.

Another possibility exists. A split within the military. This is perhaps the most dangerous of scenarios in that the general population could get caught in the crossfire. If Murburak goes, other folks (including segments of the military elite) may be requested to join him. Thirty years of enmeshed relationships in a power arrangement is bound to create a number of mutually self-serving relationships and a whole bunch of insecurity. Who falls and who remains standing? Scary shit shows up here.